Forecast Models In More Agreement As Irma Inches Closer To Florida

As Hurricane Irma continues on its way towards the continental U.S., Puerto Rico is dodging a bullet, in the sense of not getting the worst of Irma's eye wall wrath. If Irma continues on its current path and touches no larger islands such as Hispaniola or Cuba, by the time it nears Florida, we could be dealing with a strong category 4 or possibly still a category 5.

The 18z (2 PM ET) GFS ensemble members are still leaning towards an eastern track. However, it looks like there is more curvature on the western side of the members indicating a possible sharper northern shift.

The European ensemble members are basically covering the entire state of Florida. It appears as they are also leaning towards a Florida hit.

GFS operational model

Euro operational model

Take a close look at both of these. I don't know about you, but it certainly looks like these two are starting to finally agree on a possible east-coast Florida track. This is the most agreement I've seen so far. If this hold true, this is a really bad scenario for the east coast of Florida. With the most urban areas running up and down the coastline, hurricane Irma can possibly cause catastrophic damage if entering through Miami-Dade and possibly having a Cape Canaveral exit. Not only are these areas subject to possibly terrible damage, western and central Florida can possibly cause damage as well. Floridians need to stay vigilant as Irma inches closer to us.

Keep in mind that guidance models still have a chance to shift based on any changes in the current setup. And deviation in track could alter the impacts in the peninsula.