Hurricane Irma, A Tricky Forecast In The Coming Days

So, you may have heard, unless you live under a rock, Hurricane Irma is out in the Atlantic and continues to intensity as it gets closer to the Leeward Islands. It is currently a category 4 storm with centralized pressure of 943 mb, winds of 140 mph and it's moving W at 13 mph as of the 8 pm advisory on Monday. This is the current forecast track per the National Hurricane Center.

It is important to understand that the "cone of error", as it is called, can be just that. It can be completely wrong. Do NOT focus on the exact "points" displayed on this graph. This is something meteorologists stress time and time again. Especially with Irma. This storm has many different potential tracks it can take depending on what will be going on with large-scale patterns over the continental U.S. I completely understand the cause for concern after Hurricane Harvey and let alone the fact Florida has not been hit by a major hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. The best thing I can advise Floridians at this moment is to be sure all of your hurricane preparations are in place just in case.

Here is what the weather models are thinking at the moment (and subject to change):

Below are the GFS ensemble members. Ensemble members are reruns of a model with different 'tweaks' to initial conditions. Having explained that, there is still variability although MOST ensemble members are agreeing with Irma moving towards Florida, there are a few that are thinking it will make a NW turn and move towards the Carolinas instead.

GFS Model Solution

The GFS operational model is thinking by 8am Sunday on the 10th, due to a High off to the west and another one off to the eastern Atlantic (not illustrated), Irma could move right through Florida and eventually get sucked into a trough by 2:00 pm on Tuesday. This is a very scary scenario for South Florida set up by the model as extreme wind, storm surge, and flooding are potential impacts.

European Ensemble Members

As of now, the European ensemble members are a lot more confusing for a lack of a better word. They are moving anywhere towards Florida to the northeast.

European Operational Solution

The European model is thinking Irma will be right over or just off the eastern peninsula of Florida by Sunday and continuing to move paralleling the Florida peninsula.