Update on Hurricane Irma's Potential Track
As Irma moves through the Atlantic and approaches the Antilles, different models are showing some different solutions based on their own "opinions" of how the grand weather pattern will set up.
The HWRF model's solution is wanting to take Irma through Cuba's terrain by Saturday which would actually decrease Irma's intensity before making it's northern shift. How much this would tear down Irma is still a question mark. Again, this is just a model run.
The GFS is making a sharp northern turn hugging the eastern peninsula of Florida. This would affect the coastline with erosion, however, the most dangerous part of the storm, the north-east quadrant, would stay offshore (best case scenario).
The European model is still putting Irma right through the peninsula. This is still a VERY bad scenario as a much larger portion of Florida will be impacted by Irma.
There are two completely different setups for the track of Irma. The GFS seems to be making it's own trough which will influence the track and shifting it towards the eastern side of FL, while the Euro is showing the trough move east but not in time to pick up Irma and take it with it. This is why the European model is pushing Irma further west. A lot can still happen with this storm. The only thing certain is that it is a very dangerous storm and everyone needs to stay vigilant in Florida. Make sure all of your preparations are in place, and know your evacuation routes if orders to evacuate are issued.
